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Results Predictions
Since the elections is next door, each side of the Lebanese says that it is going to win.
So what are your own predictions? who is gonna win? and give some detailed info. PS: be specific and dont trow one line answers. Each one of you tries to give predictions about his own region Try to explain on what did you based your results. Thank you. |
i live in maten area
6-2 14 march-murr alliance because michel el mur left fpm:D and he is a big force in maten plus fpm popularity decreased. |
The sure thing is that we have a very hard battle and the main areas are: Metn, Zahle, Beirut 1, Koura.
Keserwen, Zgharta, Baabda,Jezzine,jbeil the battle is easier but remain hard. The opposition won't be facing problems in the south in general and some of the bekaa areas where Hizbullah has support, but turns harder in FPM areas, so the opposition has to work on promoting FPM since it's the target and the whole media campaign will be targeting FPM. It's true that FPM has a plan which will certainly shock many including the opposition supporters but still not enough and every person is needed to work to insure victory especially in the areas we will be facing dificulities as mentioned above. |
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i don't think it's gonna be 6-2 i honestly think it will be (murr+kataeb=5,fpm =3 unfortunately :( ) that is of course if tashnag voted for FPM in jbeil and keserwen it's 100% fpm, you see orange in almost every house (ex: my building out of 20 house 17 FPM and 3 lf) thank you |
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For Beirut 1 there will be also "techtib" which lead to "khare2" form both sides Koura depends on the FPM's candidates and till now they are backing up very powerful ppl like Mr. Gaby Derreik that is very popular in his area but still it;s a tough battle. Zahle: No info Keserwen, Zgharta, Baabda,Jezzine,jbeil and the south it;s practically for opposition, some "khare2" (only by 1) may occure in Jbeil (worse case scenario) Batroun: It is one of the hardest battles for simple reason ... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ , Tripoly the opposition maybe "tekhro2" but the overall score in tripoly is for harriri in all cases neither loyalists nor opposition can get the absolute majority in the 2009 elections to be very objective and basing on what i am hearing from news here and there.. Thanks :) |
koura 2-1 for opposition
batroun 1-1 the battle is who's gonna rank first. maten 5-2 for opposition (this is just a feeling) keserwen 5-0 jbeil 3-0 baabda 6-0 zgharta 3-0 jezzine 2-0 loyalists will win in bsharre, akkar, beirut 2, beirut 3, saida, shouf, aley. whereever there is Shiite, hizbullah-Amal will win easily. edit: if mikaty allied with safady and karamy go against FM in tripoly, FM will lose. zahle: FPM and co will get that seat back. 7-0 |
There's an option of 2 regarding metn, whether we win 7 to 8 seats or lose all. It all depends on how FPMers work.
If we work we guarantee the whole 8 seats, if we don't we will guarantee the loss of all 8 seats. AND STOP UNDER ESTIMATING FPM POWER IN METN! |
Roudy, Beirut 2 results are already out, there have a been a deal in Doha to split the seats 50-50 between the opposition and the loyalists.
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you will see a surprise in beirut 2 ;)
Just wait the results ;) |
still i can't beleive that el-Murr is going to continue like that ..
I think he is not so "stupid" .. i mean in politics & elections in my opinion, by the end .. something gana change his mind >> and Tashnaq can do it ! |
about maten
i dont wanna talk about the other region but why everybody is saying that in maten we will loose and this for sure.. i dont understand u guys..
maten min zamein w jeye was fpm and if u based ur statistics about the results of far3iye u r wrong because it was head to head and not lista and murr gave his own voice and his supporters to amine gmayel not fpm... did u ask urself why fpm didnt do anything to remain michel el murr?? because he betrayed us in the election and in the presidency election remember he was the first one who suported michel sleiman and not michel aoun.. second im gonna give u a statistic and this my own one: el hizb el soury el awme has betwn 6000 and 8000 and this a block, tachnag has minimum 10000 in this election and this is the minimum and u will understand later why because i cant write it on the forum, u have el ba3ssiyeh at least 2000 voice, u have ghassan mukhayber and he's a very powerfull man this just our alliance voices and still fi el chyou3iye we dont know what they will do plus we should see if eddy abi el lame3 will be on 14 march list or not and would change lot of things... also murr and nassib lahoud hates each other so fi tochtib.. anyway.. im not saying it's easy but it's not impossible to remain all the seats... plus we have more than 10000 fpm montasib bil tayar in maten without their family so i think we have a big chance to win or at least we will have 4 seats.. thank you |
you said that el 2awme el sourer has 8000 votes but i don't think fpm should have any 1 from 2awmer el sourer on the list if they want to vote for us without being on the list thats fine
only 10000 fpm ?! your wrong as statistics show that GMA can get ALONE 50 % of the votes in maten |
yoooo
i didnt say only 10000 i said fi 10000 montasibine bil tayyar fhemet chu assde??
and also trust me el awmiye they will vote for us keino ma3na aw la2 u will see and this is inside info.. take care |
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it would be gr8 to win all the seats in maten it would shut up murr and 14 feb |
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they will be running on the same lists, so the elections is going to be List Based not candidate based. Dont worry Opposition is studying each and every move ;) |
SSNP has about 6000 votes in metn and it's part of the opposition.
I don't know what's the possibility to have an SSNP candidate on our list but personally i do not mind it. |
No one is underestimating the power of FPM in maten and no one can deny the force of fpm in maten,but 2009 is not 2005..and of course like him or not michel el murr is strong and very strong in maten...and lf and katayeb are strong also..plus they way i see it is that if independent were going to vote,their vote will not go to fpm..and i'm not talking for the sake of talking,I know lots of people who voted fpm in 05 and will vote 14 march in 09.
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i know may people who voted for 14 march in 05 and they will not vote to them again they will vote to aoun .. inno akid it's a politics and many people change their mind but they r nothing to compare with people who still wanna vte for the same party..
anyway since 1990 till 2005 we used to heard that aoun ma ba2a ma3o 7adan and now the same song again so let's wait and see |
My predictions...!!
Easy to win Jbeil Keserwen Jezzin Zgharta Jnoub Some how hard Baabda Maten Koura Batroun beirut 1 No chance to win Tripoly Saida beirut 3 *** Today I called my brother I asked him about the election he told me fi khof aoun yekhsar. why he said that i don't know but he got me thinking for a while. |
I will be giving my prediction this afternoon, and by numbers,
Detailed info about each and every region. I hope everyone will remember them, and make a comparison with the results ;) Just wait for them. |
the more we are afraid the more we will have chance to win
nada it's not a problem if we are afraid from loosing because this will lead us to win.
so hope kil el chabeb yenzalo w ya3mlo volunteer and u will see the results.. also did u ever see a brilliant kid in a school that have an exam and not afraid from it eventhough he knows he will have 100% so dont worry w allah rad la7 yerja3 el tsunamie ya rabbbbbbbbbbbbbb |
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and whoever watched the news yesterday , knows that they are desperate to get 1 out of 2 seats in saida. theyr stealing the ID's of the voters in saida . |
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:O)::hizb::o |
There is nothing hard, we are the majority and we will win everywhere. In Metn, if FPM didn't vote for Murr in 2005 ma ken tole3 neyib, and this time n2allarad ma ra7 yotla3.
But FPM is not working hard for the elections, loyalists are helping their supporters in making IDs, in every single problem they face, but FPM electoral machine is not working fine, and they are not helping their supporters in solving their most simple problems which prevent them from electing. |
I don't see why metin would be difficult
they did their worst in meten to get amin jmayel elected in 2007. they spent money, they harrassed voters, they bribed, tabbalo zammaro, amin's son was dead so he was playing on that factor too. and he lost, and against who? who is kamil el khoury? you have amin jmayel who just lost his son, an Ex president, a political party leader, and you have kamil el khoury who with all my respects, few knew anything about him, but he won because he represents aoun if we won that election against outstanding odds, why would we lose now? especialy after all the good things we did so far in the government and everyone knows al murr didn't actualy support aoun as much as he said he would, and everyone knows el arman didn't go 100% with fpm w these armenians wa2ta akalouwa bahdalé after the election men jmayyel when he said they shouldn't have the right to vote, I doubt they will vote for him again after that :hawhaw: |
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>حزيران التغيير<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
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We will win them for sure(Mount Lebanon&North) : ---------------------------------------------------- Zgharta: 3 Aley: 2 Koura: 2 Batroun : 1 Jbeil: 3 Keserwan: 5 Maten: 8 Baabda: 6 Zahle: 7 Jezzine: 3 The Total: 40 We Might Win Them: --------------------- Donniye: 1 Bcharre: 1 Koura: 1 Achrafieh: 3 West Bekaa: 6 Beirut 2: 3 We will win them for sure(Bekaa,South) : ------------------------------------------ North Bekaa: 2 South(zahrani, Marje3youn, Jezzine) : win them all حزيران التغيير |
قباض منو، إنتخب ضدّو...شو ماكان لونك فكر صح
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rffmA...layer_embedded I made this video yesterday :D and I'm planing to make 5 more ;) |
ice maker ye3ne u told us wait and see and we were waiting i thought u have a logic staticstics??? ye3ne heik we will have 80 seats which is impossible...
u forgot that 14 chbat they will bring thousands f people from outside and here in canada u cant imagine what they r doin this is just in canada so i dont know in uae europe usa australia brasil etc.. chu 3am ya3mlo... also im afraid from tachnag to betray us as murr... ye3ne im reading a lot about tachnag and there is something ma bitamin hope koun gheltannn thank you |
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Click Me !!! |
Ram Boy ty budy hahahaha at least general give us some push , but there is a lot of stupid people and this is what 14 7mar counting on them... so hopeeee nerba7 ya rabbbb
bass as i told u kheyif min el tachnag dunno why anyway hope we will b the winner thank you |
I still think that winning or not or how many seats we will take is directly realted to the coalitions forces and circumstances and also is realted to the meghterbin issue.
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the main focus in the elections will be on aoun , by his victory the opposition would win and by his lose it would lose .
the main title of the coming elections is GMA , media , press etc... lol free publicity :p |
most of the people are not accepting to go to leb at least what i know here in canada cause they the way the 14 7mar are comming like the one who is shoosing his product he will ask you how many person you are and where you vote and we will reply you in one week so like nothing is sure that he will get a ticket for free so nobody is counting on them.
i see that like in 2009 a huge tsunami is comming again and i hope from fpmer's to work hard helping people and convoiyet coz these thing help a lot and let the people be exited . lebanese songs and fpm songs on big speakers mahrajeneit these maybe u will think its nothing but these thing exite the people. in maten 8-0. as the we saw in the election between kamil khoury and amin jmayel . mur stayed until last day to say who he is supporting and his machine didn't work as it should be and if we look to the past always mur and amin + nsib la7oud they are in a fake war in election at the end they are all in parlement . as we say we are lucky we have against us people like lf and kate2ib so no fear we are going to win . |
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ohhh u must ask me what's hapening in UAE :D ادّ ما بدّك في tickets بس نزال صوّت للموالاة but trust me the "mou3arada" in the UAE are really m7ammasin for the elections and we are working on getting a good price for the tickets since everyone is paying for his own one :) |
I'm gonna give you the number of the Change and Reform Block members in 09's parliement: it will be 41 :D
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Man If i didn't give the logic explanation this is doesn't mean that these result are not based on a very logical analyze. what i can say is please keep these results in mind and on the 8 come and compare. :) |
hahahaha tayeb min temmak la beb el sama ya rabbb
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Khoulasa إذا هول الأرقام ما وصلو متل ما عم نإلكون حسبونا :huh: |
dont just say that your gonna win . work like your gonna lose.
sometimes some people wouldnt go vote , cuz they would say , lasho sawti byefro2?? wer already winning . |
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