LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

Many threads were opened to talk about the destiny of the FPM and LF, especiall after the death of their leaders, Geagea and Aoun.

This thread is to talk about that issue, but no arabic words in latin fonts please!

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

Umh,

I'll start by both of them, and then talk about each one alone.

GMA and SG where both under BG's command and they where both in the original LF so we can say that both movements emerge from the same base, since both movements come from from the same base that's a 1st division.

A-FPM's case, GMA stayed in France for 15 years, during his time he "learned" the way french politics "work" and when he reached Lebanon he quickly applied those standars to his movement (those standars where applied around the world and in Lebanon but not "bi nafss l ouweh" before the come back - "not bi nafss l ouweh" for reasons we all know).
Those standars are:
1- Making a project for ellections
2- Attracting adds, good advertising campaigns (OTV, 15 October...)

When he reached Lebanon Joumblatt and Hariri where still fresh in there new position, Christians where still afraid of them so they got all atracted to Aoun and he managed to hold on to a big group of those christians.

The question is, will FPM be able to keep the same support after Aoun passes away:

1- Lebanese still follow the person and not the principle so I personnaly think that a lot of pro-FPMers only are FPMers coz of Aoun and didn't even read the FPM principles

2- Personnaly I don't see a good enough successor to Aoun in FPM, a person with the same Charisma (knowing that Aoun is not a 10/10 en matiere de Charisme) The same History , The same Ideas (knowing that I don't allways agree with them but a good group of people do)

Those 2 points lead me to conclude that When Aoun passes away, FPM's popularity will not automaticly decrease but at the first popular referendum FPM's popularity will decrease and then keep decreasing slowly to eventually become like the A7rar for example.



B- LF's case: Originally the LF was a regroupement of Resistance groups that grouped to fight unified the invadors at the time, so the LF was not originally a party, when Bachir got ellected to presidency they didn't automaticly decide what to do with the LF but after 20 days he died so the future of the LF was not decided and the LF started to divide when the war was over LF was made a political party and continued what they called there "political fight", In my opinion if the leaders at that time thought they where way different then the parties the LF was formed from they should have declared a new party with a new name and not taken LF's name. That's why we now have many people claiming to be the original LF while exactly the original LF stoped existing the day the war was over.
So we can call that the first "error".

From all the LFs SG's LF is the biggest so we will be discussing this one:
1- in 1994 the LF was banned for political reasons and the leader at the time (SG) was enprisonned.
Having a leader in prison is a big problem to a political party coz they can't ellect a leader since a leader is there but "not available" so his wife took over and with all my respect to leaders wifes but they are not leaders (except hillary clinton maybeO_o)so that made the LF loose power and devide during 11 years.

2- When SG got out of jail the LF was weekend due to
a- there political alliances who scared christians at the time
b- Problems due to the temporary leadership during the 11 years
So he took a weak party and had (and still have) to re-work his party to make it a strong one.
The LF's abbility to survive depends on SG's abbilitie to re-work his party and gain support so what follow might change.

The LF's current popular base have a lot of "taba3iyeh " to geagea so when he dies the LF will get a huge blow but kamein it will not be felt untill ellection when the lack of leader will affect the voters oppinion and it will slowly loose support after that to end up like the Ahrar.

Lebanese_a (C)

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

i know some ppl that wen GMA decied to go to hezbullah side the turn on against him , and now they are LFer , but i don't know y , i think that they are "met3asbin" but i don't know y they dicied to go to LF side eather , not to be alone in no side
what u think abt that?

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

1st of GMA didn't go to Huzballah they made a patriotic agreement and those people who left The FPM for this issue or another they are not real patriotic and that explain why they went to join the LF. i command that u start read politics and look forward to the future rather than pretending events that will never happen and rather than being like ur MARED MOUTAMARED the new nostradamus of the east.

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

I think when GMA die (God forbid) the tayyar will continue in the same patriotic ideas that general tought us and that he made a strong party he will continue stronger than ever.
as for the LF i think they will be mout3asbine more than their leader. and they will fight between each others for who will lead like theyr doing now. if they cant rule a small broadcasting company even that SG isnt dead how they will rule a party

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

Chou ossotkone? the guy comes asking a question, bit bahdloo, he's an LFer and he's the first LFer I see that enters and participate in a FPMers political forum 3a rawa2 (and vice-versa kamein ma fi 3a rawa2), instead of gently explaining to him ur point of view and trying to get him to agree with you, you attack him! tayib how will you convince him of your Point de vue if everytime he asks a question he receives such an answer uno boukra bi oul **** b hal chaghleh 3amreh ma efham chou bedone holeh w bit raw7oo 3laykone, uno kel ma wa7ad byetrok l FPM bi koun madfe3lo w everytime someone disagrees with you he's stupid tayib jarbo fhamo w fahmo ta toussalo ma7al!

you can't compare those 2 honik fi shares w legal issues bil 7ezb ma fi chi!

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

Re: LF and FPM destiny (started by Patriotic)
 

thnx man kel yale eltelo mazbout :)