Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheriff Ice
Its seems a new quadruple is in here.
Hope HA wont do the same mistake that cost us 1500 martyrs
Personally i doubt That HA will go through this.
لو تجسد الغدر في رجل لكان وليد جنبلاط
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The Politics market is like any other legalized bazar, basically open to all kind of sell & buy transactions. Nevertheless, it's unlikely for another quadruple construction to take place.
One would think that HizbAllahs' famous "code of honour" is enough guarantee for them to not turn back on FPM and Aoun, in this context. I believe however that, in addition to this code, there exist raw Hizbish political calculations that will not allow for such quadruple repetition to happen, and these are about plain cold political and sectarian numbers and balances.
As things and realities look like for now, the druze community comes second in importance, next after the christians and of course the sunnis, in respect to the political coverage needed by HizbAllah on a national scale.. A "joker" card like this smart clown Joumblat will never ever again gain trust among the shia community. He's smoked, for life. HizbAllah would never let hold of the support, political and moral, which FPM and Aoun gained them on the christian street. It is simply a priceless investment that should be developped, not dropped. So, "put your hands in cold water", HizbAllah will not commit the 2005 mistake, again, Nasrallah will not enter a government without FPM on his side.
As for Joumblat, this statement should be interpreted from his frog-eyed lizard perspective. In contrast to his christian allies, the eternally bullied "donkeys", he has rediscovered that for the americans and israelis he and his community are as dispensable as any other minority in this eastern habitat, when big elephants clash. And This has finally led him to the precious insight: If you commit a mistake, admit it, learn from it, and most importantly, try to repair it.
However, suffering from an extrem form of the "anti political maronism" malady, Joumblat has also dicovered that this strong alliance between a big chunk of the christians and the shia is truely eating his nerves and is pushing him to the 3asfouriyyeh. This statement is thus his late "smart" attempt to try to crack the FPM-HizbAllah alliance, which is what still scares and annoys him the most, and not, as some think, his fears about a sunni-shia conflict ( which actually ceased to be a serious risk, after the 7'th of may last year)