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Old 02-20-2009   #1
RAM BY
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Post Results Predictions

Since the elections is next door, each side of the Lebanese says that it is going to win.

So what are your own predictions?
who is gonna win?
and give some detailed info.


PS: be specific and dont trow one line answers.
Each one of you tries to give predictions about his own region

Try to explain on what did you based your results.

Thank you.



Last edited by Sheriff Ice; 02-20-2009 at 02:06 PM.
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Old 02-20-2009   #2
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i live in maten area

6-2 14 march-murr alliance

because michel el mur left fpm and he is a big force in maten plus fpm popularity decreased.
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Old 02-20-2009   #3
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The sure thing is that we have a very hard battle and the main areas are: Metn, Zahle, Beirut 1, Koura.

Keserwen, Zgharta, Baabda,Jezzine,jbeil the battle is easier but remain hard.

The opposition won't be facing problems in the south in general and some of the bekaa areas where Hizbullah has support, but turns harder in FPM areas, so the opposition has to work on promoting FPM since it's the target and the whole media campaign will be targeting FPM.


It's true that FPM has a plan which will certainly shock many including the opposition supporters but still not enough and every person is needed to work to insure victory especially in the areas we will be facing dificulities as mentioned above.
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Old 02-20-2009   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J()e View Post

because michel el mur left fpm and he is a big force in maten plus fpm popularity decreased.
why are u happy we should be. he is a corrupt man who build his empire of theft in maten from syrian (mganasin )
i don't think it's gonna be 6-2 i honestly think it will be (murr+kataeb=5,fpm =3 unfortunately ) that is of course if tashnag voted for FPM
in jbeil and keserwen it's 100% fpm, you see orange in almost every house (ex: my building out of 20 house 17 FPM and 3 lf)
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Old 02-20-2009   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J()e View Post
i live in maten area

6-2 14 march-murr alliance

because michel el mur left fpm and he is a big force in maten plus fpm popularity decreased.
Metn will be 50-50 between GMA and M. Murr, and the candidates of kataeeb and LF will fail , this is the most logic scenario since tashnag said that they are alliying with michel el murr and not his allies and michel aoun as mentioned in an interview between bakradonian and a kuwaitan news paper..

For Beirut 1 there will be also "techtib" which lead to "khare2" form both sides

Koura depends on the FPM's candidates and till now they are backing up very powerful ppl like Mr. Gaby Derreik that is very popular in his area but still it;s a tough battle.

Zahle: No info

Keserwen, Zgharta, Baabda,Jezzine,jbeil and the south it;s practically for opposition, some "khare2" (only by 1) may occure in Jbeil (worse case scenario)

Batroun: It is one of the hardest battles for simple reason ... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ,

Tripoly the opposition maybe "tekhro2" but the overall score in tripoly is for harriri

in all cases neither loyalists nor opposition can get the absolute majority in the 2009 elections to be very objective and basing on what i am hearing from news here and there..

Thanks
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Old 02-20-2009   #6
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koura 2-1 for opposition
batroun 1-1 the battle is who's gonna rank first.
maten 5-2 for opposition (this is just a feeling)
keserwen 5-0 jbeil 3-0 baabda 6-0 zgharta 3-0 jezzine 2-0
loyalists will win in bsharre, akkar, beirut 2, beirut 3, saida, shouf, aley.
whereever there is Shiite, hizbullah-Amal will win easily.
edit: if mikaty allied with safady and karamy go against FM in tripoly, FM will lose.
zahle: FPM and co will get that seat back. 7-0
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Old 02-20-2009   #7
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There's an option of 2 regarding metn, whether we win 7 to 8 seats or lose all. It all depends on how FPMers work.
If we work we guarantee the whole 8 seats, if we don't we will guarantee the loss of all 8 seats.

AND STOP UNDER ESTIMATING FPM POWER IN METN!
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Old 02-20-2009   #8
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Roudy, Beirut 2 results are already out, there have a been a deal in Doha to split the seats 50-50 between the opposition and the loyalists.
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Old 02-20-2009   #9
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you will see a surprise in beirut 2

Just wait the results
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Old 02-20-2009   #10
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still i can't beleive that el-Murr is going to continue like that ..
I think he is not so "stupid" .. i mean in politics & elections

in my opinion, by the end .. something gana change his mind >> and Tashnaq can do it !
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