Hariri proposes, Geagea disposes

[wewe]

source: tayyar.org aw gulf news

guys focus on the red paragraph

Sa'ad Hariri fears for his numerous investments in Lebanon. Economically speaking and politics aside, too much is at stake for the Hariri family to see Lebanon slip into a power vacuum, or another civil war. In addition to economic interests, however, Hariri was thinking about "the day after" November 24 (the date President Emile Lahoud was to step down). True, he wanted a president for Lebanon to end this gridlock, but feared a strong Christian leader such as Michel Aoun.

A strong Christian, after all, would dominate any prime minister from the Sunni community. When Hariri came to the scene in 2005, he had been willing to settle for two more years of Lahoud (whom he detested) to prevent a Christian heavyweight from coming to power.

At least, Lahoud was unpopular, weak and conciliatory when it came to the Sunnis. When it became clear that it was either Lahoud or Aoun - Hariri chose Lahoud. He knew that the Sunnis simply could not survive a strong Christian president. The killing of Sa'ad's father, Rafik Hariri, in 2005 orphaned the Lebanese Sunni community.

When Fouad Al Siniora came to power in 2005, nobody expected him to last - not even Hariri. The lack of loyal Sunni alternatives, the Israeli war of 2006, and the standoff with Hezbollah and Aoun, however, all played into Siniora's favour.

The man defied all obstacles and bolstered by the Saudis, the French and the Americans, managed to stay in power longer than Lahoud. Longer perhaps, than what Hariri wished. Strong power base :

Somewhere along the way, Hariri became jealous. Siniora had managed to establish himself as a towering Sunni personality. He now has a strong power base in Beirut; almost a parallel one to Hariri.

As far as Hariri is concerned, Siniora is an employee of the Hariri family. He is not - and was never meant to be - a leader of Lebanese Sunnis. Sources in Beirut confirm that Hariri reportedly wants to become prime minister - after a new president is elected.

The French and Saudis are advising him against such a move, although by leader of the parliamentary majority, he is entitled to the premiership.

Economic interests, therefore, and political ambitions forced Hariri to cooperate on the presidential elections. For their part, the Syrians were also cooperative, by proxy that is, through Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

French talks in Damascus, and a telephone call between President Nicolas Sarkozy and President Bashar Al Assad, are testimony to Syrian cooperation and European acknowledgement of Syrian behaviour.

Inviting the Syrians to Annapolis and placing the occupied Golan Heights on the conference's agenda are also testimony to what the Syrians are doing in Lebanon.

In addition to fearing a spill-over of chaos from Beirut, the Syrians wanted to send a positive signal to the international community. They wanted to show the world that they can be forces of stability in the Middle East.

Cooperation in Lebanon comes after the Syrians helped to release 15 British sailors from Iran, and more recently, BBC journalist Alan Johnston from Palestine. This is where Syria's hardline allies become useful.

If it were not for Syria's excellent relationship with Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hamas, the sailors - and Johnston - would still be in captivity.

Apparently, however, this time, things did not work as planned with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Foreign diplomats involved in the presidential dilemma believe that increasingly, Hezbollah is becoming independent of Syria and more representative of Iran in Lebanese politics.

Syria's man in Beirut remains Berri - not Hasan Nasrallah - and by all accounts, he has been very cooperative on the presidential issue.

One solution to the crisis is to create a new entity with elements from March 14 and March 8 (the Hezbollah-led opposition). Three heavyweights would be brought in from their current coalitions: Hariri, Aoun and Berri.

Hariri would name a prime minister (or if he gets his way, assume the job by himself). There would be no early parliamentary elections, meaning that Hariri's team gets to keep its parliamentary majority. That would pacify Sunnis.

Berri would hold his post as speaker of parliament, representing the Shiites. And Aoun would either become president thereby fulfilling his eternal ambition, or name a president that to represent him. That is what Aoun called for after all, on November 22-23.

March 14 said no, however, claiming that only parliament can name a president. Wanting an exit to the crisis, Hariri was willing to accept but couldn't say no to his two allies, Samir Geagea and Walid Junblatt.

The latter fears that this formula would completely sideline the Druze community. Geagea says no because he cannot imagine a Lebanon ruled directly or indirectly by his former arch enemy, Aoun. If this option is re-visited in the upcoming days (between now and November 30), then it would definitely need support of Hezbollah, and Geagea.

Greater role :

In turn, Hezbollah would demand certain guarantees from the new president and prime minister, namely, to forget about disarmament, commit to liberation of the She'eba Farms, and a greater role for the Shiites in Lebanon.

These are guarantees that Aoun has already declared his willingness to honour. The solution stops, however, with Geagea, who was clear in a press conference on November 24, asking, "Why shouldn't yours truly become president?"

In a message to Hariri, he added, "With all due respect, keeping the Siniora cabinet is not a solution!" He wrapped up saying, "If General Aoun spent years in exile, I spent years underneath the ground!"

Geagea seemed to be saying: "I see myself as equal - if not better - than Michel Aoun. If Aoun gets to name a candidate, I get to name a candidate. If Aoun is entitled to become president, nothing prevents me from having the same ambitions!"

But Geagea's Lebanon would be a nightmare not only for the Shiites, but for the Sunnis, French, and Saudis as well. He would never tolerate a strong Sunni prime minister. He would immediately work at disarming and sidelining the Shiites. And he would crush his Christian opponents (whom he had fought a bloody battle with in the late 1980s).

Ambitious and vengeful after years of imprisonment, Geagea is angry and wants to get his way. That is why sources in Lebanon speak of a "Christian intifada" in March 14 - a break between Hariri and Geagea .

[xcoder]

If a break up happens between geagea and 14feb then history repeats itself.
Rock in front of michel aoun, once mission accomplished biwadou. last time he went to the lala land.

[wewe]

Originally Posted by xcoder

If a break up happens between geagea and 14feb then history repeats itself.
Rock in front of michel aoun, once mission accomplished biwadou. last time he went to the lala land.

nice one
the only thing that ja3ja3 is made for , is to confront gma , and only to confront him i wonder, when gma dies (alla ytawel bi 3omro) will ja3ja3 commit suicide just to confront gma in heaven ???
oops......i forgot .he's definitly not going to heaven

[libanati]

"If General Aoun spent years in exile, I spent years underneath the ground!"

Because he's a criminal condemned by a Lebanese Court.

"I see myself as equal - if not better - than Michel Aoun. If Aoun gets to name a candidate, I get to name a candidate. If Aoun is entitled to become president, nothing prevents me from having the same ambitions!"

See, he already forgot he spent several years in jail.
How many times are we going to tell him that he's a criminal before he gets it?

But Geagea's Lebanon would be a nightmare not only for the Shiites, but for the Sunnis, French, and Saudis as well. He would never tolerate a strong Sunni prime minister. He would immediately work at disarming and sidelining the Shiites. And he would crush his Christian opponents (whom he had fought a bloody battle with in the late 1980s).

Totally correct. Gonna turn into a dictature.

Ambitious and vengeful after years of imprisonment, Geagea is angry and wants to get his way.

Some Lebanese still don't get it. But I respect their choices.

a break between Hariri and Geagea

Would be funny but good for the sake of Lebanon.