SHN On Manar Tv today @8.30

[TAYYAR AL AOUNI]

21:55 Sayyed Nasrallah:
-It’s our duty to be cautious and alert.
-Lebanese security circles fear of a major security act. -If we consider this possibility very likely -- although we believe Israel would not carry out any attack at present -- how should we act?
-The first possibility behind these maneuvers has a psychological to restore confidence.
-The second possibility has a defensive dimension due to Israeli concerns.
-The third possibility has an intimidating dimension --Israel wants to relay a regional and global message that it is still strong.
-The fourth possibility is that Israel is likely planning towards a new, surprise war.
- Elections should take place on June 7. The opposition more than anything wants this election.
-The U.S. military delegation left Beirut for Amman aboard a U.S. military plane.

21:40 Hezbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah: -
-We have to say the truth as is – The origin of the conflict in the region is the question of Palestine.
-If we consider this possibility very likely -- although we believe Israel would not carry out any attack at present -- how should we act?
- The fourth possibility is that Israel is likely planning towards a new, surprise war.
- Lebanese security circles fear of a major security act.
- The third possibility has an intimidating dimension --Israel wants to relay a regional and global message that it is still strong. -The second possibility has a defensive dimension due to Israeli concerns.
-The first possibility behind these maneuvers has a psychological to restore confidence.
- After the July (2006) war, The Israeli enemy carried out hundreds of maneuvers and drills. However, the maneuver scheduled for May 31 will put the entire internal front in a state of war.

http://www.tayyar.org/Tayyar

[TAYYAR AL AOUNI]

BEIRUT: Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Monday said the resistance would "adopt precautionary measures to face any security attack that might target Lebanon."

During a speech broadcast on Hizbullah's Al-Manar station, Nasrallah added that "we will also be ready and cautious; and we tell the Israelis that any surprise attack will fail."

The Hizbullah leader also called on the Lebanese people to be ready for "the Israeli enemy's largest maneuvers since 1961."

Nasrallah said the Israeli maneuvers, which will be held between May 31 and June 4, would involve the entire Occupied Territories, including the army, police, government, people, hospitals and schools.

"I hope the Lebanese people won't be frightened; and I hope the Lebanese security forces and army will bear responsibility because it's an issue of national security," he added.

The Hizbullah leader said there were four probabilities behind Israel's maneuvers.

The first probability, according to Nasrallah, was that these maneuvers "are meant to restore trust and morals: the trust of the army in itself, the trust between its generals and soldiers, and the trust of the people in their government and army."

The second probability, he added, was that these maneuvers were carried out because the Israeli government was "worried about its existence or at least worried over its national security."

The third probability, he said, was that Israel wanted to send a message to the region and the world to say the Israeli entity was neither weak nor divided.

The fourth possible reason for the maneuvers, according to Nasrallah, was that Israel may be preparing for a new surprise war. He added that Israel might launch an attack that would lead to unexpected reactions which require the Israeli government, army and people to be ready.

"We don't have information on this issue, but this probability should be taken into consideration," Nasrallah said.

However, the Hizbullah leader added that based on the group's personal analysis, "we don't think that Israel will launch a war against Lebanon ... but we should be cautious and ready."

He added that Hizbullah's capabilities had grown "in quantity and quality."

Nasrallah said that during a dialogue session held last April, MP Mohammad Raad had put this issue on the table to ask for a national policy to prepare for such maneuvers. However, Nasrallah said the issue had fallen on deaf ears.

"This political authority, whose responsibility it is to protect the country, didn't take any measures," he said, adding that Lebanese politicians were busy with the upcoming parliamentary elections.

"Did this state decide in any way to protect the security, water, and dignity of Lebanon?" he asked.

He added that "the Israeli enemy says it is performing the largest maneuvers in 61 years, but the Lebanese Cabinet has not figured out how to face this issue diplomatically, militarily, civilly or politically."

The Hizbullah leader also called for holding an extraordinary dialogue session or a Cabinet session dedicated to this issue to agree on a strategy to face any possible threats that might result from these maneuvers.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article....icle_id=102121

[shevchenco]

If you missed it, you can watch the whole speech on vcoderz's youtube channel. (it was uploaded 5 min after the speech was over. beat that wa3ad )

[TAYYAR AL AOUNI]

Mohamad Shmaysani -

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah offered Monday condolences to the family, pupils and followers of Grand Ayatollah Sheikh Mohammad Taqi Bahjat who passed away on Sunday.

“In the beginning, and before I tackle any topic, I would like to pay my condolences to Muslims worldwide, to our revered scholars particularly Imam Khamenei and the Hawzas for the passing away of Grand Ayatollah Sheikh Mohammad Taqi Bahjat. I would like to pay special condolences to the family, students and followers of the Ayatollah who stood by our resistance and provided us with lots of moral support and was the first to give us the good news of our victory in July 2006

.” Sayyed Nasrallah was speaking in a live address broadcast on Al-Manar TV where he recalled Nakba (Catastrophe) that took place in Palestine 61 years ago.“Brothers and sisters, the first topic that I would like to address is the Nakba; the Nakba of Palestine and the whole umma that took place 61 years ago. I do not have to recall the facts because we are still living them. When commemorating Nakba, we have to underline the fact that this entity was founded on massacres, exodus and is still based on occupation. Therefore this cannot be a legitimate entity. The establishment of this aggressive entity in the heart of our Arab and Islamic region 61 years ago, is the main reason for all wars and wows in the regions, and therefore the past, present and next generations will have to deal with the repercussions of planting this cancerous body in the region. Everyone ought to realize that the wars that took place in the region were imposed by this entity through hegemony. What the peoples of this region had done was reacting to the occupation that was established in 1948 and expanded in 1967 and 1982. We have to speak the naked truth. The origin of the struggle is the Palestinian cause and everything that happened later was the result of this struggle. The bargain has always been on liquidating this cause. Schemes were set to push the Palestinian people to yield to the status quo, to surrender and to relinquish their legitimate rights.

Since the beginning, plans to settle Palestinians (outside Palestine) and finding an alternative country as well as autonomous rule in Gaza and the West Bank were put on the table. 61 years after this collusion on the people of Palestine, and in front of this people’s steadfastness, we can’t but praise this people and its armed resistance and the martyrs, as well as the determination of the families, the injured, the 11,000 detainees and the refugees.” “We have to remind the Umma and all the free men in the world, particularly the governments and the peoples in the Arab world, that they have a responsibility to take for Palestine and its people, especially those who have been suffering in the Gaza Strip in the wake of the latest war…They share responsibility to support this people with every possible means. This is the people that proved it is worthy of support and perhaps the best proof is that it refused to surrender for decades and it is bearing the suffering of the resistance.”

“The second topic is the Israeli maneuver. This is a fundamental and sensitive issue that requires some illustration in details. First, what is this maneuver and what are the Israelis doing? Second, What are the probabilities? Third, what is required and how we should act? Since the end of the July war (2006), there has been consensus in Israel, whether the government or the military, security apparatuses, the media and the public opinion that the war on Lebanon was an utter failure. We followed the Winograd report and the terms it used, frustration and flaws, which exposed the handling of the war by the government and the military command as well as the security cabinet. Based on the Winograd assessment and the conclusions of the 40 panels, it was found that there had been a great deal of flaws that must be addressed. We are in front of a serious enemy that is acting responsibly. This is why they immediately begin to work on plans to rebuild the army and deal with the flaws and mistakes through new weapons and technologies as well as a series of military exercises.

There had been large scale maneuvers recently, including Juniper and Turning point 1 that was focused on the command and the home front. It was a maneuver at the level of the entire entity. The Spring Flower maneuver and the North Winds offensive maneuver in the north and other offensive exercises at the level of the general staff.” “This morning, the Israeli army radio said that the Israeli Air Force was conducting exercises all over the entity. Moreover, Turning Point 3 maneuver will take place between May 31 and June 4. This drill will be at the level of the whole Israeli entity. It is a windup of Turning Point 1 and 2. They describe it as a large scale exercise with the aim to lift the national state of readiness in case of a military confrontation in which the home front would be part of the battlefield. The Israeli Deputy war (Defense) minister says that the goal of the maneuver is to bring in the culture of emergency to the people. We will try to tackle the issue in an objective way, but let’s see what the Israelis say and what they will do. The whole entity, the hospitals, the shelters, the government, the armed forces and the media will take part in the drill. This exercise has dimensions. He says that the goal is to introduce the culture of emergency as if war was to erupt tomorrow. (Gabi) Ashkenazi says that 1009 will ripen complicated security challenges that requires full alert. This explains the importance of this maneuver for the enemy. In short, as said by the Deputy war minister: a whole nation will engage in exercise for five days.” “In this maneuver, Turning Point 3, the emergency authority will be responsible for the whole drill, the government will be on alert, the security cabinet will hold meetings in a state of war and take decisions, the Israeli army in all its formations on top of which is the IAF will be on full alert as well are local councils, ministries, educational institutions, home front units, police, civil defense and the Red Magen David. The scenario they are suggesting is: confronting a rocket attack from Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza simultaneously with an escalation in the West Bank, unconventional rocket attacks, the explosion of dangerous material in the Haifa Bay and a terrorism-related incident in Eilat; a series of attacks across the entity.

The Israeli enemy will be preoccupied with this maneuver for five days, yet they are ignoring the correlated negative impact and say that it’s no problem if people lived in an atmosphere of war and bombings adding that this can be handled for the sake of greater objectives the Israelis are striving for through the drills. If we study this maneuver we find that it cannot be separated from a series of bellicose schemes and the developments in the region. There have been developments and challenges in the region. In assessing the matter, it goes without saying that the defeat of the Israeli army in May 25, 2000 and its humiliating and unconditional pullout from Lebanon, left serious marks on the zionist entity and the army, as acknowledged by senior Israeli officials back then. The second Intifada broke out after the 2000 withdrawal and it developed into a fierce armed resistance in occupied Palestine so much that the Israeli command considered itself fighting its second independence war. Later on, the enemy had to make a unilateral pullout from the Gaza Strip. And in 2006, the Israeli army was dealt a serious blow in Lebanon and the Winograd committee findings, as well as the repercussions of the July war on the Israeli society and the political and the military commands, not to forget the failure of normalization with the peoples of the Arab states that signed peace treaties with Israel, particularly in Egypt and Jordan, led to the increase of the Arab awareness and the wide public support to resistance movements. It was a support that overcame all efforts aimed at isolation resistance movements. We can also add Iran’s growing capabilities in all domains and its acquirement of nuclear technology for peaceful and civil purposes, Israel’s accusations to Iran of seeking to build nuclear weapons; something that Israel dismisses as an existential threat and Iran denies, the development of Syria’s capabilities and the strategic cooperation between Tehran and Damascus, Syria’s support to the resistance and the failure to isolate Damascus, the setback of the US project as well as the American ability to launch new big wars like in Afghanistan and Iraq, the preoccupation of world with lots of crises, on top of which is the economic crisis.

There are more factors like the development of the skills of resistance movement. The Israelis used to face guerrillas, but today they face a new school that projected itself in the wars of 2006 and Gaza and declared that all of Palestine will be part and parcel of any war in the future. The Israelis have categorized resistance movements as threats to Israel’s strategic security after they were a mere threat to the Israeli population. In the middle of these developments and this atmosphere, after the July 2006 war in particular, under a new zionist government that has brought back the settlement process – as the Palestinians say – to square one, where the world is begging (Benjamin) Netanyahu to endorse the two-state solution, the enemy is undertaking those drills.” “We are talking about assumptions, yet they might take place. There might be other assumptions as well. The first is to say that the top priority goal of these maneuvers is of a psychological and moral nature. Given the defeat of the invincible Israeli army, the increase in early elections and the public crisis in Israel, the maneuver aims at rebuilding trust and restoring morals, whether the army’s self confidence, the confidence of the Israeli population in its army and government or confidence between the army and the government. The second assumption is that Israel is really worried about its existence in the wake of all the mentioned developments, or at least it is worried about its strategic and national security and therefore it is doing what it perceives as necessary to face any danger, thus the drills will have a defensive dimension.

The third probability, let us put it the framework of intimidation, is aimed at sending a strong message to the whole region, the Palestinians, Lebanon, Syria, Arab peoples and Arab governments, Iran and the rest of the world, that Israeli is not weak, broken or hesitant as you think it is, because Israel is powerful, capable, superior and mighty and will face everyone. They also want to say that Israel is capable of crushing everybody and ready to engage in war at the level of the whole entity. The message is for the Palestinians to yield to status quo because they want to take them to a limited autonomy in a Jewish state, consequently targeting Palestinians in lands occupied in 1948, displacing Palestinians in Quds, pressing forward with building settlements. The message is also for Syria that is looking forward to liberate its occupied lands. It is a message to all Arab peoples and governments to tell them that Israel will not stop building settlements, continue the Jewdaization of Jerusalem and displace Palestinians, while you – Arab governments – do whatever you want; this is Israel that is armed from head to toe, the ready-for-war Israel. The message of intimidation is also for Lebanon. They want to say that we killed you and we will keep on killing you. Official security officers believe Israel is preparing for a large security event in Lebanon.

They say that their fighter jets are violating our airspace and their spy networks are infiltrating our families and our villages, so we must not think of defending ourselves and we must only yield to any Israeli aggression. It’s a message to Iran, that Israel will not tolerate the nuclear issue, and if we (Israel) take action, you (Iran) can’t threaten us, for this is Israel, ready for any reaction. The fourth and last assumption which we cannot ignore is that Israel is planning a new blitzgreik. We notice that the Israeli rhetoric is about sudden reactions. At least they know that in this present stage, no one is seeking to open a front with Israel, so why do they raise this issue? This suggests that Israel is considering a military or security activity that could lead to sudden or unexpected reactions and therefore, the whole entity must be prepared to act within seconds or minutes, since Israel will start the aggression.” “This and every other probability is taken into account. We do not have information and we cannot decide on the option Israel will adopt, so we have to take all options into account. How should we act?

First, I want to say that we do not tend to believe that the zionist enemy will wage war. The security question remains open because they can seize any moment to launch a large scale aggression. However, we tend to say that this probability might not be a strong option, but bear in mind that this is only an assessment. Assessment is something and precautionary measures are another. We have to stay alert. We have been following up these maneuvers since the end of the July war. We have shed light on this particular maneuver and we raised the issue at the national dialogue conference on the defensive strategy. MP Mohamad Raad informed the participants about the gravity of the maneuver and told them that as a country near this aggressive entity, we ought to be on full alert. We requested adopting a national policy to deal with this, and other maneuvers that will follow. We sought an official national policy to deal with this issue because it targets all Lebanon and the Lebanese, not just Hezbollah or the resistance in particular. Unfortunately, many were not interested. The government did not discuss the maneuvers and the Higher Defense Council did not bother to convene to tackle the issue.

They could have met and relieved the Lebanese. There was no reaction because, apparently, some believe they are not concerned. Facing this, did the government take a decision of war or peace for the sake of Lebanon, its stability, its dignity, its water, its people and its resistance? A strong and capable state also means a capable political leadership. Israel’s problem in the July 2006 war was not the army alone, it was also the leadership that failed to act. The enemy is saying that it will conduct the largest ever drill in its history, yet the Lebanese government does not have enough time to figure out how to act.

The spy networks is another issue that has nothing to do with the maneuver or war. We still have time. Let us hold an extraordinary meeting over this; let there be a national policy to face the maneuvers. In every statement we stress Israel is an enemy, do some politicians really regard Israel as an enemy? They say that Lebanon is not concerned! They even accused Hezbollah of making this maneuver issue up as if the party was preparing for something. It is unfortunate that instead of taking this matter seriously, some have chosen to unleash accusations.” “We are a part of this people. Successive governments have neglected us, but the people did not abandon their responsibilities. Accordingly, I would like to say that with regards to the resistance, we have taken a series of precautionary measure to foil any military aggression against Lebanon during the maneuver. We will be on very high alert. I am telling your this not to scare you, but to reassure the people. When this message reaches the Israelis, they will know that they have lost the element of surprise. They might not try anything, but we have to act based on worst case scenarios. The Israelis know very well that this resistance has never fell behind its duty to defend the country. There is no need for me to make a threatening speech. They got the message. I hope that people will go on with their normal lives and not to worry, but our duty is to be on high alert. I heard that the army commander had visited south Lebanon and made excellent comments. Security forces are acting responsibly and I hope they all share this responsibility because it’s a national matter.”

http://www.tayyar.org/Tayyar/News/Po...1989897753.htm