Zahle's Battle

[KeXasthur]

We all know that in 2005 there was a huge surge of sunni support to Hariri especially after Hariri’s assassination. It was known it would wear out, that is for sure. The change or decline might be significant and it might not but when it comes to effect it is significant no doubt.

So Hariri wants to make up for that in Lebanon. That is why the 7 May incidents are being used to fuel the sunni street in Zahle ( and all over Lebanon) again to maintain the 75% they got last time. All cheap propaganda aimed at it is exactly to fuel the sunni street to maintain the same level of support in the sunni street. Secterian speeches also are flowing. Hariri is trying to recall his father's death but he knows it will not be as effective this time so he had to use this "new incident". It was important for SHN to address it in his speech a couple of days ago.

Now ofcourse maintaining this number ( 75% of sunni street) is not enough to win (even if you take into account the FPM’s support falling back) from one part because no matter how that drop of support is exaggerated it will still not be that significant and from another part because the Shiite street this time is giving most of its support to FPM-Hezbollah.

Now Zahle is arguably the most important and decisive battle in Lebanon. It will decide who gets the majority. The opposition winning 4 out of the 7 would be a positive result and might be counted as a win. That is because, unless FPM can secure all seats in Batroun, Koura, Maten, Beirut 1, etc, they will lose overall if they lose this battle. And knowing the nature of those battles, FPM can't secure them all so Zahle is the most important battle. That is why I think all FM's efforts would be spilling in Zahle. They will have to think of another way to win this battle which seems very close on paper.

So I remembered this ...

This is an important speech for Elie Skaff around a month or two ago that no body is giving any interest to. Moreover, this is not his only speech. He even gave the year before a speech to address this issue of "Na2el elnfous".

حذر النائب ايلي سكاف من سياسية الترغيب والترهيب التي يعتمدُها فريق الموالاة في زحلة، مناشداً وزارةَ الداخلية التدخلَ لايقاف عمليات نقل النفوس الحاصلةِ في المِنطقة. كلام سكاف جاء خلال استقباله من اهالي بلدة الكرك في البقاع الاوسط وعضو الكتلة الشعبية النائب حسن يعقوب، وفي لقاء انتخابي حاشد جدد النائب سكاف تحذيره من عمليات الغش ونقل النفوس فضلاً عن محاولات اخذ بطاقات الهوية من المواطنين.
واضاف سكاف" علمنا بأنهم يجولون على البيوت ويأخذون بطاقات الهوية وأرقامها. فالذي يسلم بطاقة هويته كمن يسلم سهم ملكيته في لبنان. على كل واحد منا ان يعتبر هذه المعركة وكأنها معركته الشخصية. علينا ان نتمسك بهويتنا اللبنانية. وهنا نتوجه الى وزارة الداخلية. بأن هناك بطاقات هوية لم يستلمها اصحابها بعد وهناك امور يجب معالجتها بسرعة". مشيرا الى ان "قوة زحلة وقضاؤها من قوة ابنائها وبعدد نوابها في المجلس النيابي. داعيا للتعالي عن الخلافات الشخصية. فالتشطيب يؤذي جدا. لافتا الى الحاجة الى النواب السبعة للتمكن من التعويض على المنطقة ما حرمت منه.
النائب يعقوب تحدث بدوره عن سياسية الحرمان الممنهجة، وعن الاهمال المعتمد تجاه منطقة البقاع الاوسط في ظل كافة حكومات ما بعد الطائف، مؤكداً ان تاريخ السابع من حزيران سيعيد السلطة الى من يستحقها. وفي ختام اللقاء، كانت كلمة ترحبية من احد فعاليات بلدة الكرك

As far as I know, no one is giving any attention to it. I am not going to affirm that this is true, however, the point is if it is true ... then it will have a huge effect on the elections.
The difference here is that this cannot be controlled by the opposition. Unlike propaganda and cheap lies and attacks and threatenings, this one is a factor that has nothing to do with people's minds and conviction and opinion of who are they going to vote for.
That is why knowing how critically decisive Zahle’s battle is going to be, 3amaliyyet "na2el el nfous" is probably the last resort for FM and for 14 March in Zahle and thus, Lebanon. It can be possible to verify that when the elections are done, however, it would be too late.

Moreover, other rumors are also being spread about Berri working under table with Hariri and all that, whether they are true or not, they are a reflection of the heat of the elections in Zahle. So do you believe Zahle will be the decisive battle or do you think the elections in Maten and Beirut 1 will be more important ?

[xcoder]

I was talking about this matter with someone a week ago, the "noufous" transfer is being done heavly by the loyalists all over the country that also with importing big number of people from outside.

However the opposition has scored big during the last few months and almost everything is going in its favor in Lebanon and on the international level after the fell of the American plan in the region.

If things remain that way i hardly believe the loyalists will be able to score in or outside Zahle especially that Fatoush is heading to create a third list.

[KeXasthur]

I wasn't wrong.

I hate to say it guys , but I TOLD YOU SO !