Why Do You Think This Happened?

[Slonje]

The following article shows an interesting point of view about the FPM electoral campaign and method of work. It talks about loosing the elections because of several reasons. For me, we didn't loose since the Change&Reform is bigger but we needed 5 6 more deputies to gain the majority.

الأخبار": تنظيم التيار وإعلامه وخطابه وطريقة صرف الأموال من أسباب الخسارة

علقت صحيفة "الأخبار" في عددها الصادر اليوم على الخسارة التي منيت بها المعارضة والتيار "الوطني الحر" في الانتخابات النيابية، عازية التراجع الذي حققه "الوطني الحر" في المناطق المسيحية الى 4 أسباب رئيسية:
1- تنظيم التيار، فبرأي "الأخبار" أخذ العبر من انتخابات المتن الفرعية لم يتم إلا في ماكينة المتن الانتخابية وبمبادرة من النائب ايراهيم كنعان وليس من التيار، ربما لأن العماد ميشال عون ما زال مقتنعاً بما كان يقوله بعض المحيطين به من أن تياره في أحسن أحواله وأن التعثّر مرتبط مرة بتدخل رجال الدين وأخرى بدفع الأموال.
ولفتت الصحيفة الى أن غالبية الناشطين في التيّار تغيّروا كثيراً خلال السنوات الأربع الماضية، وبات كل واحد منهم يتكبّر على جيرانه، ويتصرّف باعتبار أنه الآمر والناهي. وفقد العونيون تواضعهم وقربهم من الناس واستعدادهم للنقد الذاتي وللحوار الهادئ. كمال أضاءت على موضوع تنظيم الاغتراب في التيار، فيعد العماد عون عاد الكوادر وتركوا الساحة خالية دون تنظيم أة دون العمل بجهد لحل المشاكل التي برزت.
2- صرف الأموال، وفي هذا السياق لفتت الصحيفة الى أنه لا بدَّ من هيكلية واضحة تحدّد الحقوق والواجبات المادية بالنسبة إلى الناشطين، وتوضح بشفافية، كالتي يطالب بها العماد عون على مستوى الدولة، طريقة صرف الأموال في التيار. واشارت الى أنه في الأسبوعين اللذين سبقا الانتخابات، كان ثمة عونيون يضعون في جيبهم أكثر من مئتي خط تشريج ومئتي "بون" بنزين. وفي المقابل، كان ثمّة مسؤول بلدة لا يملك وحدات في هاتفه ليجري اتصالات ضرورية للمعركة.
3- إعلام التيار، وفي هذا الإطار رأت الصحيفة أن إعلام التيار الوطني الحر (تلفزيون "أو تي في"، وإذاعة صوت الغد، والموقع الإلكتروني) بات يتوجه حصراً إلى جمهور التيار الوطني الحر. وهو أشبه بالإعلام الحربي الذي لا يخاطب إلا المحازبين الذين يفترض أنهم يحتاجون إلى نشرة يومية لا إلى وسائل إعلامية تكلّف ثروات.
4- خطاب التيار "الوطني الحر"، وقد بيّنت النتائج، بعيداً من تبرير الحرب الكونية ودور كلمة البطريرك الماروني نصر الله صفير ورشوة الناس وأعداد المغتربين، أن نسبة كبيرة من المقترعين المسيحيين، غير المتحزبّين لأحد، في جبيل وكسروان والمتن وبعبدا غير راضين عن خطاب التيار الوطني الحر. والاسباب هي: عدم قبول الناس باستماتة العونيين للدفاع عن حزب الله، سواء أكان على حق أم على باطل، قلق الناس من عدم تقديم التيار الوطني الحر، والمعارضة عموماً، مشروعاً اقتصادياً واجتماعياً جدّياً للحكم، اعتقاد بعض العونيين في خطابهم السياسي بأن العماد عون بالنسبة إلى موارنة الكورة وكسروان والمتن والأشرفية وزحلة مثل الوزير السابق سليمان فرنجية بالنسبة إلى موارنة زغرتا.

[Kenny5]

man thats not true at all...
specially about bonet l benzine w khtout techrij!!!
they are saying we lost well i can see we had 21 deputee and now 27
we have 60% of christians vote
we lost in achrafieh and za7le because of the sunni votes (achrafieh 2000 votes and za7le 8000 votes more than 2005)
they spend over 1 billion $ and with the support of patriarch and michel sleiman to let us lose keserwen and jbeil and we saw what happened to them (7aram bonbon sar bado lammiye )
they tried to cheat in matn they managed a little bit but it wont last i guess
they are saying in baabda chiia helped with the winning and in fact there was 17000 chiia votes and 16000 durzi votes, wel fare2 more than 9000 votes so...
No we are winners and the story about organisation of the campaign is not true at all
we lost the majority coz we are playing fair and we are not buying people to vote 4 us thats it!!!

[The Orange Cat]

i think part l tonzim is smhow true. don't 4get they're our 2nd elections. yes we lacked tonzim w sheghel mandoubin. and our media didn't fabricate the same level of lies they fabricated. instead we spent too much time defending ourselves from sooooooo many propaganda which made many ppl believe we r actually wrong.
but i believe that our biggest mistake was GMA's belief in the ppl of this country. he believed they had some brains. but hey, once a boot licker, always a boot licker!

[El-Meghwar]

what "krout teshrij" and "bonet benzin" ??
probably the writer is talking about Future Movement..
C&R bloc had 21 deputies, we now have between 27 and 29 deputies.. so we didn't lose at all..

[Rampage!!]

Originally Posted by ken_5

(...za7le 8000 votes more than 2005)

WHAT ?! my friend you are wrong here the sunnit vote in zahler was 26000 ! skaf was wining in zahler from the christian vote that 26000 sunnit voted for the whole 14 march list wen ba3ed bado yla7i2?

[Rampage!!]

لا يمكن الاستخفاف بعودة المغتربين التي بلغت 120 ألفا في لبنان كلّه بحسب إحصاءات الطرفين بينها 92 ألف صوت لقوى 14 آذار و28 ألفا للمعارضة، هؤلاء شكلوا عاملا مؤثرا في دوائر صغرى. (السفير

[lallous_91]

we lost cz simply CHA3EB LEBNENE GHASSSSHHHHHIIIIIMMMMMMMM. w that's it ....

[Taifoon]

All analysis aside, the opposition lost due to two direct factors:

- FPM Did not handle Beirut 1 properly (for example Ziad 3abs instead of Abou Jamra + it should have tailored a special and intense electoral plan for that area in specific, due to the sensible presence of the martyring duo there)

- The manipulated/moved sunni voters in Zahle

and one minor: The saudi payed and imported voters of Koura and Batroun. They simply outnumbered FPM's.

Winning Zahle and Beirut 1 was the key to our loss and their victory.

FPM's electoral loss is actually only relevent when framed inside the bigger picture which soon will start to remerge; it is Lebanon's loss that should trouble us, and also the morons who think that now that the opposition has lost, the dangers of Hizbullah's arms willl be better contained.. I greet those morons: Champions in self deception, eat air, you might have just invited your worst demons to party at your home..

It hurts to not be able to kick out the a$$ of the Haririst mafia and their spawns.. That's because we know that another 4 precious years will be lost.. Also because we know that, under the administration of the same set of idiots we've been stuck with for the last 20 years, the risk for adventurous Russian Roulette games, for self annihilation, increased poverty, immigration and economic miseries, will rocket exponentially.. All talk about take it easy, it's OK, FPM won more MPs, accept reality it's been always like this, is to no avail. What is coming might turn out to be more fatal than all this..

Irrespective of Obama's apparent softer approach to the ME problem in general, the Israeli friendly neoconservative's apparatus did not totally evacuate and disappear from the american political arena after Bush left.. We're talking institution engines here, things that don't stop tuffing momentarly only because few people are replaced..

The idea of implanting the palestinians in their current countries is still very much alive and kicks.. And so is the idea of having a fragmented habitat all around the israeli state. With the saudis and americans' tails winning over the majority, lebanese civil war can now be realized. Most Lebanese people who shout anti-Hizbullah fears, do in fact express legitimate fears, albeit for the wrong reason.. They should fear Hizbullah's arms if/when Hizbullah gets cornered, which is what might happen, sooner or later under the supervision of those re-elected morons.. Have no illusions that it is actually the americans and the israelis who insist on having Hizbullah still armed to the teeth; what better instrument can they dream of to use for setting this country ablaze? If the americans did really want to help us disarm Hizbullah, they would start by asking the Israelis to take 3 simple steps: Stop intruding into our spaces, leave shebaa to the lebanese army, and put genuine efforts into wanting to negotiate peace with us, based on the palestinians right to return back to a palestinian state of theirs, side by side Israel..

With stiffer and politically more confident loyalists back at the helm - something they doubted will happen thus the late opening between the syrians and the saudis-, the international tribunal's sword soon to be directed at Hizbullah's neck, and the resolution of 1559 and 1710, expect black days to be waiting us ahead..

[Kenny5]

Originally Posted by emilio

WHAT ?! my friend you are wrong here the sunnit vote in zahler was 26000 ! skaf was wining in zahler from the christian vote that 26000 sunnit voted for the whole 14 march list wen ba3ed bado yla7i2?

no no man i know, u got me wrong i said enno 8000 sot zyede 3an l 2005
and this was added in the last month

[The Orange Cat]

Originally Posted by ken_5

no no man i know, u got me wrong i said enno 8000 sot zyede 3an l 2005
and this was added in the last month

true, zedo 20 000 last month n i donno how legal that is bcz minister baroud ken meni3 hayda l shi
i wanna transfer nfousse to metn n i was told the minister is not allowing any transfer. so how could that happen in zahle?!